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  • This could be the price of one bitcoin in March 2020 – if it follows the same pattern as previous rallies

    Jun 27, 2019

    On March 9, 2020, one bitcoin will be worth $330,486. At least if the price trend follows the same pattern as in the previous price rallies we saw in 2011, 2013 and 2017.

    But let’s start by looking at the data on which the calculation is based:

    Date: Price: Change (%):
    Bottom: 3 October 2010 $0.06
    Top: 9 June 2011 $28.92 +48 200%
    Bottom: 18 November 2011 $2.05
    Top: 9 April 2013 $230.00 +11 220%
    Bottom: 5 July 2013 $66.34
    Top: 4 December 2013 $1,147.25 +1 729%
    Bottom: 24 August 2015 $209.13
    Top: 17 December 2017 $19,343.04 +9 249%
    Bottom: 16 December 2018 $3,229.17
    Today: 26 June 2019 $12,400.00 +384%

    In brief, the table summarizes all previous price rallies we have seen for bitcoin since the cryptocurrency was invented just over ten years ago. We can also see what the bottom and top of each rally were, and on which dates the peaks and bottoms were reached. But even more interesting is the change between each bottom and the next peak. This is stated in percent in the column to the far right of the table.

    With the help of these numbers, we can calculate the median for how many percents a price rise in bitcoin means: 10,234 percent. One problem with counting in this way, however, is that two of the figures in the table stand out by being much higher (48,200 percent) and much lower (1,729 percent) than the remaining increases. By using the median instead of the average we get around the problem to some extent, but since the selection is at least limited (only four occasions) one should still take the result with a grain of salt.

    $330,486?

    Well, if we assume that the rally we are in right now will follow the same pattern and increase by 10 234 percent from the bottom of $3,229 we saw December 16 last year, we can conclude that a bitcoin will cost $330,486 next time we reach the top.

    $153,834?

    Another way to count is to compare the relationship between all previous peaks. Thus, how many percents higher one of the peaks is compared to previous peaks.

    For example, the price soared by 1,686.04 percent from the peak of $1,147 on December 4, 2013, to the next peak of $19,343 on December 17, 2017. If we calculate the median for all the differences between peaks so far, we can expect an increase of about 795 percent compared to the previous peak. This gives us the result that the next peak will land at $153,834 per bitcoin.

    $58,542?

    If you want to count very conservatively, you can use the lowest percentage change from previous rallies, 1,729 percent. If the price of a bitcoin would increase by 1,729 percent from the previous bottom of $3,229, it would mean that the price peaks at $55,844 per bitcoin.

    However, it is worth remembering that this result is based on the worst possible scenario and is therefore probably a gross underestimate.

    The next peak can be reached in March 2020

    Another interesting conclusion one can get from the table above is how long it normally takes for bitcoin to reach a bottom until the price reaches the next peak. The numbers spread a bit here too, but on average, a bottom to the top cycle takes 449 days. If we then assume that the last bottom was $3,229 on December 16, 2018, it means that we are now 193 days into the cycle that will end with us reaching the next peak around March 5, 2020.

    With the same mathematics, we can also calculate that the next bottom should occur sometime in early January 2021.

    Conclusion

    If this edition of price rally for bitcoin stays in line with the same pattern as the previous rallies we have seen, we can guess that the next peak will occur in early March 2020 and reach somewhere between $55,000 and $330,000.

    We can also conclude that the eccentric cybersecurity pioneer and crypto profile John McAfee will have to eat his own penis “on national television”, as the bitcoin price will probably not reach as high as $500,000 before July 17, 2021.

    Totte Löfström,
    CEO, Trijo News
    Twitter: @TotteLofstrom
    Facebook: /tottelofstrom

    Interested in sending us an opinion article? Email it to info@trijo.co.

    The post This could be the price of one bitcoin in March 2020 – if it follows the same pattern as previous rallies appeared first on Trijo News.


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